Bot exploits Polymarket bias by betting against non-sports event outcomes

Bot exploits Polymarket bias by betting against non-sports event outcomes

Hacker News·1mo·sterlingcrispin

A developer built a simple trading bot that systematically bets "No" on Polymarket's non-sports prediction markets—and it's profitable because most events never resolve as predicted. The strategy exposes a real arbitrage opportunity in how casual predictors overestimate the likelihood of novel events actually happening.

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